The US economy is under strain, and the oil price shock could tip it over into recession.
“People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one,” said Hady Farag, a partner and associate director at Boston Consulting Group.
The problem: Timing a recession is extraordinarily hard. How do we know? That quote was from a CNN story in July 2022.
That’s when oil was last over $100 and gas prices averaged about $5 a gallon. But the US economy didn’t go into a recession