A supporter of ousted Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro carry his portrait during a rally outside the National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images
Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images
For one prediction market trader, the Trump administration’s weekend capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was a nearly half-million-dollar payday.
On Polymarket, a popular site for making bets on the outcome of real world events, a user wagered $32,000 that Maduro would be toppled by the end of January hours before Trump ordered the operation. When it was clear the U.S. had captured Maduro, the trader