The market is sending a worrying signal about the economy

Good news: Oil traders are betting the Iran war will end fairly soon. Bad news: They’re also betting the economic damage from the war could last for years.

Crude has surged above $110 a barrel, making $4-a-gallon gas and $5.40 diesel a painful reality in the United States.

But when we say “crude is trading above $110 a barrel,” that’s not the full story: Oil trades on a market where investors buy barrels of oil to be delivered sometime in the future – months or even years later. Right now, oil for April delivery is at $110, but the further out the oil is set

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