Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts

Putting a percentage on the likelihood of a nuclear disaster can feel icky—like you’re boiling down the immensity of human suffering into a spreadsheet. “I think what people dislike about this is that people are thinking about the unthinkable,” says Spieghalter. But confronting the unthinkable is unavoidable if we want to reduce the risk of nuclear war now and in the future. “The risk of nuclear war is probably much higher than many of us might want to assume,” says Anders Sandberg, who researches risk at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. If we know how different factors contribute to the probability of a nuclear detonation, we

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